Judging whether a process is a candidate before spending anything
Not every manual process is worth automating, and the ones that look most tedious are not always the best candidates. Four things make a process suitable: enough volume for a saving to be material, enough consistency for the pattern to be learned, an outcome that can be checked against something, and a tolerable cost when it goes wrong. A high volume process with no way of telling whether an answer was right is not a candidate, it is a liability waiting for an audit.
One test settles most arguments quickly. Give the source documents to a capable person who knows the business but has not seen these particular files, and ask them to produce the answer. If they cannot, because the information is not actually present or because it depends on knowledge that lives in somebody's head, no model will do better. That costs an afternoon and it has saved more than one organisation from funding a project that could not have succeeded.
History is the other prerequisite, particularly for forecasting. A model built on transaction history inherits everything about that history, including the year the plant closed for six weeks and the period when a discount code was miscoded. Understanding those distortions is a real part of the work. Where history is too short, too clean, or the product is genuinely new, a stated statistical baseline and a person's judgement will beat a model, and we will tell you which situation you are in.
- Volume, consistency, verifiability and cost of error assessed before any build is quoted
- A capable person given the same inputs as a control, before a model is considered
- Transaction history reviewed for known distortions before a forecast is attempted
- The owner of the current process involved from the first conversation
- An explicit decision to stop where the process is not a suitable candidate